Political#436tier 2live in productionNew

`lobbying peer graph momentum`

cadence: Dailydata: mediumlong only

2016

Borisov, A., Goldman, E., & Gupta, N. (2016). "The Corporate Value of (Corrupt) Lobbying." Review of Financial Studies, 29(4), 1039-1071.

Read the paper →

What it checks

When the TNIC product-market peers of a firm collectively ramp lobbying spend, the policy tailwind tends to lift the whole cluster.

Mechanism

Quarterly lobbying spend across focal's TNIC peer set z-scored over 8 quarters. Shared policy-tailwind expectations propagate via product-market cluster.

No production champion data for this family yet. Stats appear once the discovery pipeline promotes at least one strategy with this family tag, or once a multi-family blend that includes it earns a champion slot.

Signal rule

long when peer-basket quarterly lobbying spend 8q z >= +1.5; hold 60/90/180d

Data dependencies

lobbying_disclosures
OpenSecrets Senate LDA quarterly lobbying-spend filings.
entity_graph_edges
Worker data table, see services/worker schema.
daily_prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.

Expected edge

Paper alpha: ~4-8%/yr
Paper Sharpe: ~0.5
Paper window: T+1 to T+180d

Borisov-Goldman-Gupta 2016 RFS: direct lobbying alpha; peer-graph variant captures the spillover.

Example tickers where this is likely to fire

LLY PFE BMY GD NOC RTX

Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.

Related families

lobbying issue sector beneficiaryEntity-Graph / Political

Rising lobbying expenditure on an issue area reveals policy-tailwind expectations for firms in the sector served by that issue. Signal leads policy outcomes by 1-3 quarters.

lobbying shockMacro

Lobbying is a leading indicator of regulatory tailwinds the firm expects to win — pharma facing FDA, finance facing CFPB. Changes in quarterly lobbying spend predict 6-12 months ahead returns.

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lobbying peer graph momentum