Real-World & Alternative DataExtended setlive in productionNew

Noaa Storm Refiner Disruption

Updated dailyData needs: mediumshort only

2002

Considine, T.J. (2002). "Inventories and market power in the world crude oil market." Energy Economics 24(3), 247-265. Also Cohen, L., Garcia, D., Khan, U., Pinchuk, A. (2024) (hurricanes and equity returns).

Read the paper →

In plain terms

Storm enters Gulf of Mexico → refiner and chemical stocks (VLO/MPC/PSX/LYB/DOW) drop 1-3% for a week.

How it works

Tropical-storm-or-stronger HURDAT2 fix inside Gulf-of-Mexico bounding box → SHORT U.S. refiners + chemicals (supply-disruption + platform-shutdown channel).

No live results for this strategy yet. Charts appear once it has earned a top spot on at least one stock, either on its own or as part of a blend of several strategies.

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Data dependencies

Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
Noaa hurdat2
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.

Expected edge

Reported return: -1% to -3%
Tested over: T+0 to T+7d

-1% to -3% over 7d.

Example tickers where this is likely to fire

VLO MPC PSX LYB DOW

Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.

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