noaa storm refiner disruption
What it checks
Storm enters Gulf of Mexico → refiner and chemical stocks (VLO/MPC/PSX/LYB/DOW) drop 1-3% for a week.
Mechanism
Tropical-storm-or-stronger HURDAT2 fix inside Gulf-of-Mexico bounding box → SHORT U.S. refiners + chemicals (supply-disruption + platform-shutdown channel).
Signal rule
wind_kt>=34 in GoM box, last 7d → short VLO/MPC/PSX/LYB/DOW; hold 3/7d
Data dependencies
daily_pricesAdjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
noaa_hurdat2Worker data table — see services/worker schema.
Expected edge
- Paper alpha
- -1% to -3%
- Paper window
- T+0 to T+7d
-1% to -3% over 7d.
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only — the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
hurricane landfall coastal shortWeatherPre-landfall window T-3 to T+5 shorts coastal-HQ REITs/refiners/ports; longs P&C reinsurers (RNR/RGA/AXS/ACGL).
noaa landfall insurance shortWeatherHURDAT2 hurricane-strength fix inside FL/TX/LA coastal cone (lat/lon bounding box) within trailing 5d → SHORT property insurer basket.
eia natgas storage surpriseCommoditiesThe EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (Thu 10:30am ET) is the dominant single-event-day driver for the natgas equity complex. The market trades the surprise vs same-week-of-year 5y mean: build smaller than expected (or draw larger) = bullish, natgas E&P basket re-rates up 1-5 trading days.
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