Event / FDA#328tier 2experimental liveNew

`orphan drug premium long`

cadence: Dailydata: mediumlong only

2009

Lichtenberg, F.R. & Waldfogel, J. (2009). "Does misery love company? Evidence from pharmaceutical markets before and after the Orphan Drug Act." NBER Working Paper.

Read the paper →

What it checks

Small biotechs with few Phase III programs tend to outperform after a pivotal trial completion, capturing the orphan-drug premium.

Mechanism

Orphan Drug Act exclusivity + tax credits + waived fees produce 12-month sponsor outperformance for small-pharma orphan indications.

No production champion data for this family yet. Stats appear once the discovery pipeline promotes at least one strategy with this family tag, or once a multi-family blend that includes it earns a champion slot.

Signal rule

Small-sponsor proxy (<=8 Phase III programs total) + Phase III completion or results-first-posted event -> LONG T+1; hold 60/90/120 trading days.

Data dependencies

daily_prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
clinical_trials_phaseiii
Worker data table — see services/worker schema.

Expected edge

Paper alpha: 12mo premium
Paper window: T+1 to T+120d

Lichtenberg-Waldfogel 2009: 12mo small-pharma orphan-drug premium.

Example tickers where this is likely to fire

CRSP ALGS AMLX LGND ALNY

Illustrative only — the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.

Related families

clinicaltrials phaseiii readoutEvent

Phase 3 completion dates are forecastable; pre-readout long-vol premium.

phase 1 to 2 advancement premiumEvent / FDA

Phase-1->2 advancement carries lower baseline expectations than Phase 3 readout, generating a stronger relative-information sponsor reaction (~+6-10% over 60d).

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orphan drug premium long