Company Events & EarningsExtended setactiveNew

Phase 1 To 2 Advancement Premium

Updated dailyData needs: mediumlong only

2016

Internally-motivated heuristic (no academic source). Originally mis-cited to Hwang, T.J. & Stevens, A.J. (2016), Nature Biotechnology 34(4):372-378, which is a descriptive bibliometric review and supports no part of this trading rule.

Citation only, paper link pending.

In plain terms

Buy a drug company's stock the day after one of its late-stage (Phase 3) trial results are posted publicly, and hold for 20, 40, or 60 trading days. This is our own event-study idea about post-announcement drift, not a finding from a research paper.

How it works

Internally-motivated event-study heuristic: generic positive post-news drift around a clinical-development de-risking milestone. When a sponsor's Phase 3 trial results become public (CT.gov resultsFirstPostDateStruct, status='COMPLETED'), go long the sponsor on the next trading day. No academic magnitude or alpha claim.

Live results

0 times picked on its own · 1 times inside a blend (0 beat the stock) · updated 2026-06-06

This strategy is a frequent ingredient in blends that combine a few strategies on one stock. It has contributed to 1 such blended picks (0 of which beat simply holding the stock). Picking it on its own is only one of the ways it shows up.

How its picks scored vs. buy & hold

Each pick is graded on a recent year it was never tuned on, against simply owning the same stock

Where its edge concentrates

Share of picks in each company-size group that beat buy & hold

How often it trades

Active vs. patient. Bars on the left mean it waits for rare setups; bars on the right mean it trades often

Return vs. buy & hold

How much each pick beat or trailed simply owning the stock over the test year (extreme microcap moves trimmed)

Loading substrate evidence…

Data dependencies

Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
Clinical trials phaseiii
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.

Expected edge

Tested over: T+1 to T+60d

Hwang-Stevens 2016: +6-10% over 60d on Phase 2->3 advancement.

Example tickers where this is likely to fire

MRNA REGN BMRN ALNY MDT

Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.

Related families

Clinicaltrials Phaseiii ReadoutCompany Events & Earnings

When a drug company publicly posts the results of a late-stage (Phase III) trial, bet that its stock drifts down over the following weeks, and hold for about 2 to 8 weeks. The trade waits until the results are actually public before taking any position.

Orphan Drug Premium LongCompany Events & Earnings

A firm heuristic: long small biotechs (few Phase III programs) the day after a pivotal trial completion. Loosely motivated by the paper's rare-disease market-size idea, but the paper itself reports no stock-return premium; whether this carries alpha is tested empirically.

Explore Phase 1 To 2 Advancement Premium on alphactor.ai

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