Event / FDA#329tier 2experimental liveNew
phase 1 to 2 advancement premium
cadence: Dailydata: mediumlong only
paper
2016
Source
Hwang, T.J. & Stevens, A.J. (2016). "Clinical trials of approved therapies: A review of FDA-approved drug applications, 2003-2013." Nature Biotechnology, 34(4), 372-378.
Read the paper →
What it checks
When a drug advances to its first Phase 3 trial, we go long the sponsor for the next 1-3 months.
Mechanism
Phase-1->2 advancement carries lower baseline expectations than Phase 3 readout, generating a stronger relative-information sponsor reaction (~+6-10% over 60d).
No production champion data for this family yet. Stats appear once the discovery pipeline promotes at least one strategy with this family tag, or once a multi-family blend that includes it earns a champion slot.
Signal rule
First Phase 3 registration per nct_id (proxy: completion_date - 730d) -> LONG sponsor T+1; hold 20/40/60 trading days.
Data dependencies
daily_pricesAdjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
clinical_trials_phaseiiiWorker data table — see services/worker schema.
Expected edge
- Paper alpha
- +6-10% over 60d
- Paper window
- T+1 to T+60d
Hwang-Stevens 2016: +6-10% over 60d on Phase 2->3 advancement.
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only — the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
Explore phase 1 to 2 advancement premium on alphactor.ai
See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.