Event#437tier 1live in productionNew

`pdufa label type drift`

cadence: Dailydata: lowlong only

paper

2024

Source

Industry mechanism: PDUFA approval windows differ by label type (NME larger reprice than label expansion).

Read the paper →

What it checks

FDA PDUFA approval dates for new drugs (vs label expansions) drive bigger price swings.

Mechanism

FDA PDUFA event window split by NME (first-time drug) vs label-expansion (repeat drug_name).

No production champion data for this family yet. Stats appear once the discovery pipeline promotes at least one strategy with this family tag, or once a multi-family blend that includes it earns a champion slot.

Signal rule

long focal during [-15d,+15d] window on NME PDUFAs; [-5d,+5d] on label expansions.

Data dependencies

fda_adcomm
Worker data table, see services/worker schema.
daily_prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.

Expected edge

Paper alpha: ~5-15% per event
Paper Sharpe: ~0.5
Paper window: T-15d to T+30d

PDUFA events drive ~5-15% reprice; NMEs cluster in upper range.

Example tickers where this is likely to fire

PFE REGN BMY LLY

Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.

Related families

fda adcomm pdufaEvent-Driven

FDA adcomm + PDUFA target-action dates are ±15% binaries.

clinical trial enrollment velocityEvent

Phase III trial status flips (negative or positive) on ClinicalTrials.gov drive sponsor-ticker reprice over 21-63d.

Explore `pdufa label type drift` on alphactor.ai

See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.

Open universe with this filter →Browse all 445 families

pdufa label type drift