Polymarket Executive Departure Short
In plain terms
When Polymarket says it's more likely than not that the CEO will leave by date Y, short the stock through resolution. Markets price in the imminent-departure premium before it happens.
How it works
When a polymarket on 'Will <CEO/CFO/Exec> leave <company> before <date>' has YES probability > 0.5, the underlying equity tends to under-perform through the resolution window. Two channels: (1) information asymmetry — prediction-market participants may have read-through that the sell-side hasn't priced; (2) imminent-event risk premium — once YES exceeds 50%, the equity trades at a discount even if the departure ultimately doesn't happen.
Data dependencies
- Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
- Polymarket markets
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
- Polymarket prices daily
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
Expected edge
- Reported return
- untested — moonshot
- Tested over
- T+0 to T+60d
Untested — moonshot. Target -100 to -300 bps on tickers with an exec-departure polymarket above 50%.
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
Prediction markets (Polymarket / Kalshi / Manifold) often price corporate events — FDA approvals, M&A close-by dates, CEO departures — faster than the stock does. When the prediction-market 'yes' price diverges from 0.5 by more than 5%, take a directional position in the linked equity.
When a public company files an 8-K saying an executive is leaving, the stock typically drops 3% within 60 days.
Polymarket asks 'will the merger close on time?' — if YES is above 75% but the stock is still trading far below the deal price, take the long. Symmetric short when YES drops below 25%.
Explore Polymarket Executive Departure Short on alphactor.ai
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