Polymarket MA Close Drift
In plain terms
Polymarket asks 'will the merger close on time?' — if YES is above 75% but the stock is still trading far below the deal price, take the long. Symmetric short when YES drops below 25%.
How it works
For merger/acquisition markets ("Will X merger close by date Y?"), the polymarket YES probability is a clean prior on deal-completion. When the polymarket says >75% close-prob but the equity is trading far below the deal price (wide deal-spread), the classical Mitchell-Pulvino risk-arb edge is amplified: there's a paid wait AND a prediction-market vote of confidence on completion. Symmetric short on <25% close-prob (break risk).
Data dependencies
- Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
- Polymarket markets
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
- Polymarket prices daily
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
Expected edge
- Reported return
- untested — moonshot
- Tested over
- T+0 to T+90d
Untested — moonshot. Target 100-300 bps on the subset of merger-arb tickers with a linked polymarket market.
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
When a ticker files an 8-K signaling an M&A deal, the stock drifts directionally for 1-3 months as the market re-rates it.
Prediction markets (Polymarket / Kalshi / Manifold) often price corporate events — FDA approvals, M&A close-by dates, CEO departures — faster than the stock does. When the prediction-market 'yes' price diverges from 0.5 by more than 5%, take a directional position in the linked equity.
When prediction markets disagree with options markets on the same event, the cheaper side has the edge. We take the equity position implied by whichever instrument is mispriced lower.
Explore Polymarket MA Close Drift on alphactor.ai
See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.