SEC 8K Disclosure Velocity
In plain terms
When a company starts filing many more 8-Ks than usual, it's often because something bad is being staged — short the stock through the disclosure storm.
How it works
Acceleration in 8-K filing frequency (per-90d count z-score vs trailing-2y own history) is an information-environment shock. Firms accelerate disclosures around adverse events (restatements, departures, litigation, Reg FD violations); tail-z velocity predicts both elevated realized vol and a negative drift over 1-2 quarters.
Live results
2 times picked on its own · 19 times inside a blend (18 beat the stock) · updated 2026-06-06Data dependencies
- Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
- SEC 8k events
Item-coded 8-K events (1.01 material agreements, 4.02 non-reliance, etc.).
Expected edge
- Reported return
- -1-3% over 60d (velocity tail)
- Tested over
- T+1 to T+90d
Bushee-Matsumoto-Miller 2003 + Cohen-Lou-Malloy 2013; internal target -1-3% over 60d on velocity tail.
Related families
If a company's 10-K barely changes year-over-year, the business is boring-and-steady and outperforms. Big text changes signal hidden bad news.
Companies that change auditors underperform by ~9% over the next year. Short the day after the 8-K Item 4.01 lands.
Counts uncertainty/risk words ('may', 'could', 'challenging') in 10-K Item 1 (Business) YoY. A spike means management is privately more worried — bearish.
Explore SEC 8K Disclosure Velocity on alphactor.ai
See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.