Steam Player Decay 30d
In plain terms
If a new game loses more than half its players in the first 30 days, the publisher's upcoming earnings will likely miss. We track day-1 vs day-30 concurrent-player counts and short the publisher when a title fails to hold its launch audience.
How it works
A new game's 30-day retention curve is the cleanest read on product quality and monetization runway. CCU(d+30)/CCU(d+0) much below 0.5 means the title isn't holding its launch audience — DLC/season-pass attach will miss, and near-term revenue guidance is at risk. We short the publisher 10/20 trading days after observing the steep-decay event.
Data dependencies
- Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
- Steam top games concurrent
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
- Steam publisher ticker map
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
Expected edge
- Reported return
- untested — internal
- Tested over
- T+0 to T+20d
Untested — internal. Target -50 to -150 bps annualized on the gaming-publisher subset; ~2-5 steep-decay events per publisher per year.
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
When players flock to a publisher's live-service games (think GTA Online or Apex Legends), DLC and microtransaction revenue follows. We scrape SteamCharts daily, sum concurrent players across each publisher's portfolio, and rank publishers cross-sectionally on 30/90 surge.
Amazon review count for a brand accelerates → the parent stock outperforms 1-2 months.
App climbs the Apple Top-100 chart → parent stock outperforms 1 month later.
Explore Steam Player Decay 30d on alphactor.ai
See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.