steam publisher concurrency momentum
What it checks
When players flock to a publisher's live-service games (think GTA Online or Apex Legends), DLC and microtransaction revenue follows. We scrape SteamCharts daily, sum concurrent players across each publisher's portfolio, and rank publishers cross-sectionally on 30/90 surge.
Mechanism
Live-service games (GTA Online, Apex Legends, Call of Duty: Warzone, EA Sports FC) monetize on per-day active player counts. A 30/90 concurrency ratio surge across a publisher's portfolio of linked Steam games predicts revenue beats 1-2 quarters out. We rank cross-sectionally across US-listed gaming publishers and trade the top / bottom deciles.
Signal rule
For each US-listed publisher: ratio = mean(concurrency[t-30:t]) / mean(concurrency[t-90:t]); rank cross-sectionally across peer publishers; +1 long top decile / -1 short bottom decile; 21-day hold; lag-1 trading day for no look-ahead.
Data dependencies
daily_pricesAdjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
steam_top_games_concurrentWorker data table — see services/worker schema.
steam_publisher_ticker_mapWorker data table — see services/worker schema.
Expected edge
- Paper alpha
- untested — internal
- Paper window
- T+0 to T+21d
Untested — internal. Target 50-150 bps annualized on the gaming-publisher subset (~5 tickers: TTWO, EA, MSFT plus opportunistic).
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only — the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
mobile app dau panelAlt-DataApp-store rank improvement (lower = better) leads app-revenue surprise 1-month.
product review velocityAlt-DataAmazon review-count 7d acceleration z > +1 → consumer-discretionary outperformance via revenue-surprise channel.
store traffic safegraphAlt-DataWeekly visits YoY +/-5% predicts SSS surprise for brick-mortar retail.
Explore steam publisher concurrency momentum on alphactor.ai
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