steam review velocity long
What it checks
When the rate of Steam concurrency growth accelerates (proxy for review velocity), the publisher's stock outperforms over 2-4 weeks.
Mechanism
Sandvig-Larson 2016 + Liu 2006 documented that review *velocity* (reviews/day) drives entertainment-equity returns more strongly than the average rating. Per-day Steam-review counts not yet ingested — we proxy via peak-concurrency velocity (1d Δ peak_today smoothed 14d).
Signal rule
Δpeak smoothed-14d 60d z >= +1.0 → LONG publisher; hold 10/20d.
Data dependencies
daily_pricesAdjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
steam_top_games_concurrentWorker data table — see services/worker schema.
steam_publisher_ticker_mapWorker data table — see services/worker schema.
Expected edge
- Paper alpha
- 50-200 bps
- Paper window
- T+1 to T+20d
50-200 bps over 10-20d.
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only — the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
steam publisher concurrency momentumAlt-dataLive-service games (GTA Online, Apex Legends, Call of Duty: Warzone, EA Sports FC) monetize on per-day active player counts. A 30/90 concurrency ratio surge across a publisher's portfolio of linked Steam games predicts revenue beats 1-2 quarters out. We rank cross-sectionally across US-listed gaming publishers and trade the top / bottom deciles.
steam player decay 30dAlt-dataA new game's 30-day retention curve is the cleanest read on product quality and monetization runway. CCU(d+30)/CCU(d+0) much below 0.5 means the title isn't holding its launch audience — DLC/season-pass attach will miss, and near-term revenue guidance is at risk. We short the publisher 10/20 trading days after observing the steep-decay event.
steam genre rotationAlt-dataGaming-publisher revenue is genre-concentrated (TTWO≈action, EA≈sports, MSFT/Activision≈shooter). When the Steam top-100 panel rotates toward a publisher's dominant genre — i.e. the share of total CCU coming from that genre rises 1σ above its 60d trailing mean — the publisher's addressable demand expands and equity drifts up.
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