Economy & PolicyExtended setlive in productionNew

Terror Consumer Discretionary Short

Updated dailyData needs: mediumshort only

2003

Drakos, K., Kutan, A.M. (2003). "Regional effects of terrorism on tourism: Evidence from three Mediterranean countries." Journal of Conflict Resolution 47(5), 621-641. Also Becker, G.S., Rubinstein, Y. (2011). "Fear and the response to terrorism: An economic analysis." Economic Journal.

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In plain terms

Major US/EU terror attack → restaurants/cruise stocks (DRI/MCD/CCL/RCL) drop 2-4% over 1-2 weeks.

How it works

Large US/EU terror event (fatalities_est>10) last 5d → consumer-fear channel suppresses out-of-home leisure 3-5% over 10d → SHORT restaurants + cruise.

No live results for this strategy yet. Charts appear once it has earned a top spot on at least one stock, either on its own or as part of a blend of several strategies.

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Data dependencies

Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
Terror events
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.

Expected edge

Reported return: -2% to -4%
Tested over: T+0 to T+10d

-2% to -4% over 10d.

Example tickers where this is likely to fire

DRI MCD CCL RCL

Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.

Related families

Terror Event Airline DriftEconomy & Policy

Terror attack in US/EU → airline/cruise/hotel stocks drop 3-5% over 1-2 weeks.

Terror Defense PremiumEconomy & Policy

Major terror attack → defense-prime stocks (LMT/NOC/GD/RTX) outperform for 1-3 weeks.

Acled Conflict Onset DefenseEconomy & Policy

Global conflict fatalities spike → US defense-prime stocks outperform 1-4 weeks.

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