Geopolitical#254tier 2live in productionNew

`terror consumer discretionary short`

cadence: Dailydata: mediumshort only

2003

Drakos, K., Kutan, A.M. (2003). "Regional effects of terrorism on tourism: Evidence from three Mediterranean countries." Journal of Conflict Resolution 47(5), 621-641. Also Becker, G.S., Rubinstein, Y. (2011). "Fear and the response to terrorism: An economic analysis." Economic Journal.

Read the paper →

What it checks

Major US/EU terror attack → restaurants/cruise stocks (DRI/MCD/CCL/RCL) drop 2-4% over 1-2 weeks.

Mechanism

Large US/EU terror event (fatalities_est>10) last 5d → consumer-fear channel suppresses out-of-home leisure 3-5% over 10d → SHORT restaurants + cruise.

No production champion data for this family yet. Stats appear once the discovery pipeline promotes at least one strategy with this family tag, or once a multi-family blend that includes it earns a champion slot.

Signal rule

GDELT fatalities_est>=10 + US/EU country, last 5d → short DRI/MCD/CCL/RCL; hold 5/10d

Data dependencies

daily_prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
terror_events
Worker data table — see services/worker schema.

Expected edge

Paper alpha: -2% to -4%
Paper window: T+0 to T+10d

-2% to -4% over 10d.

Example tickers where this is likely to fire

DRI MCD CCL RCL

Illustrative only — the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.

Related families

terror event airline driftGeopolitical

Terror events in US/EU last 5d → 3-5% drawdown in airlines/cruises/hotels; mild recovery in P&C.

terror defense premiumGeopolitical

Major terror event (fatalities_est>10) in last 5d → LONG defense primes on procurement-backlog re-pricing + forward-order-book expansion.

acled conflict onset defenseGeopolitical

Large rise in conflict fatalities (rolling 30d global) → 5-30d outperformance of US defense primes + downstream suppliers.

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terror consumer discretionary short