Economy & PolicyExtended setlive in productionNew

Terror Defense Premium

Updated dailyData needs: mediumlong only

2010

Karolyi, G.A., Martell, R. (2010). "Terrorism and the Stock Market." International Review of Applied Financial Issues and Economics. Also Eldor, R., Melnick, R. (2004). "Financial markets and terrorism." Journal of Banking & Finance 28(8), 1925-1955.

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In plain terms

Major terror attack → defense-prime stocks (LMT/NOC/GD/RTX) outperform for 1-3 weeks.

How it works

Major terror event (fatalities_est>10) in last 5d → LONG defense primes on procurement-backlog re-pricing + forward-order-book expansion.

No live results for this strategy yet. Charts appear once it has earned a top spot on at least one stock, either on its own or as part of a blend of several strategies.

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Data dependencies

Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
Terror events
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.

Expected edge

Reported return: +1% to +3%
Tested over: T+0 to T+20d

+1% to +3% over 20d.

Example tickers where this is likely to fire

LMT NOC GD RTX

Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.

Related families

Acled Conflict Onset DefenseEconomy & Policy

Global conflict fatalities spike → US defense-prime stocks outperform 1-4 weeks.

Terror Event Airline DriftEconomy & Policy

Terror attack in US/EU → airline/cruise/hotel stocks drop 3-5% over 1-2 weeks.

Terror Consumer Discretionary ShortEconomy & Policy

Major US/EU terror attack → restaurants/cruise stocks (DRI/MCD/CCL/RCL) drop 2-4% over 1-2 weeks.

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