Geopolitical#253tier 2live in productionNew

`terror defense premium`

cadence: Dailydata: mediumlong only

2010

Karolyi, G.A., Martell, R. (2010). "Terrorism and the Stock Market." International Review of Applied Financial Issues and Economics. Also Eldor, R., Melnick, R. (2004). "Financial markets and terrorism." Journal of Banking & Finance 28(8), 1925-1955.

Read the paper →

What it checks

Major terror attack → defense-prime stocks (LMT/NOC/GD/RTX) outperform for 1-3 weeks.

Mechanism

Major terror event (fatalities_est>10) in last 5d → LONG defense primes on procurement-backlog re-pricing + forward-order-book expansion.

No production champion data for this family yet. Stats appear once the discovery pipeline promotes at least one strategy with this family tag, or once a multi-family blend that includes it earns a champion slot.

Signal rule

GDELT fatalities_est>=10 in last 5d → long LMT/NOC/GD/RTX; hold 5/10/20d

Data dependencies

daily_prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
terror_events
Worker data table — see services/worker schema.

Expected edge

Paper alpha: +1% to +3%
Paper window: T+0 to T+20d

+1% to +3% over 20d.

Example tickers where this is likely to fire

LMT NOC GD RTX

Illustrative only — the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.

Related families

acled conflict onset defenseGeopolitical

Large rise in conflict fatalities (rolling 30d global) → 5-30d outperformance of US defense primes + downstream suppliers.

terror event airline driftGeopolitical

Terror events in US/EU last 5d → 3-5% drawdown in airlines/cruises/hotels; mild recovery in P&C.

terror consumer discretionary shortGeopolitical

Large US/EU terror event (fatalities_est>10) last 5d → consumer-fear channel suppresses out-of-home leisure 3-5% over 10d → SHORT restaurants + cruise.

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terror defense premium