Economy & PolicyExtended setResearchNew

Terror Real Estate Msa Short Pit

Updated dailyData needs: lowshort only

2003

Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003) estimate the Basque conflict's regional economic effect; the implementation uses a national event count and national REIT basket, not MSA attribution.

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In plain terms

Inactive geopolitical-event research using release- or capture-timed events and effective-dated baskets. Legacy bulk history is not promotion-grade evidence.

How it works

30d rolling count of derived US terror days z over 1825d; z >= 1.5/2.0 -> SHORT effective-dated us_reit members (borrow-enforced), holds 30/60/90; NOTE the legacy name says MSA but the construct is NATIONAL — disclosed, no MSA attribution is claimed

No live results for this strategy yet. Charts appear once it has earned a top spot on at least one stock, either on its own or as part of a blend of several strategies.

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Data dependencies

Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
Gdelt event observations
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
Geo exposure basket observations
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.

Expected edge

No inherited return claim; evaluate absolute and identical-episode relative effects post-cost only after exact source coverage exists.

Example tickers where this is likely to fire

SPG BXP HST

Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.

Related families

Terror Consumer Discretionary ShortEconomy & Policy

Major US/EU terror attack → restaurants/cruise stocks (DRI/MCD/CCL/RCL) drop 2-4% over 1-2 weeks.

Terror Defense PremiumEconomy & Policy

Major terror attack → defense-prime stocks (LMT/NOC/GD/RTX) outperform for 1-3 weeks.

Explore Terror Real Estate Msa Short Pit on alphactor.ai

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