acled mining disruption
What it checks
When conflict spikes in DR Congo / Peru / Chile / Indonesia, mining stocks (FCX/SCCO/GOLD/RIO/BHP) underperform — cost-push wins over spot-price uplift.
Mechanism
Conflict density in copper/gold/cobalt mining regions (DR Congo, Peru, Chile, Indonesia, Bolivia) raises spot metal prices AND raises operating costs for the miner. The net effect on the miner equity is negative: cost-push wins because miners are already shipping near capacity; spot-price uplift accrues to commodity holders, NOT to producers.
Signal rule
30d ACLED event count in major mining countries, z over 24m. z>=+1.5 → SHORT cross-listed miner basket. Hold 5/10d.
Data dependencies
daily_pricesAdjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
acled_eventsWorker data table — see services/worker schema.
Expected edge
- Paper alpha
- -1% to -3% over 10d
- Paper window
- T+0 to T+10d
Target -50 to -150 bps over 10d on qualifying fires (~3-8 per year).
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only — the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
acled conflict onset defenseGeopoliticalLarge rise in conflict fatalities (rolling 30d global) → 5-30d outperformance of US defense primes + downstream suppliers.
oil supply disruptionGeopoliticalChokepoint disruptions (Hormuz/Red Sea/pipelines) → cross-asset: long E&P + tankers, short airlines + SPY.
copper steel ratioCommoditiesCopper/steel ratio is a forward indicator of industrial-cycle leadership.
Explore acled mining disruption on alphactor.ai
See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.