Acled Mining Disruption
In plain terms
When violence spikes in major mining regions, metal prices tend to jump and big cross-listed miners rise with them. This family goes long the miner basket on those event spikes.
How it works
Conflict density in copper/gold/cobalt mining regions (DR Congo, Peru, Chile, Indonesia, Bolivia) spikes spot metal prices. For large cross-listed miners the spot-price uplift passes through to revenue and the equity re-rates UP. The original cost-push SHORT thesis was empirically mc-significant on the wrong side at negative Sharpe, so the family trades the spot-passthrough LONG direction (2026-05-20 wave-6 flip).
Data dependencies
- Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
- Acled events
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
Expected edge
- Reported return
- -1% to -3% over 10d
- Tested over
- T+0 to T+10d
Target -50 to -150 bps over 10d on qualifying fires (~3-8 per year).
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
Global conflict fatalities spike → US defense-prime stocks outperform 1-4 weeks.
Tanker attacks in Hormuz/Red Sea → oil + tanker stocks rally; airlines + broad market dip 1-5 days.
Copper outpacing steel = capex cycle accelerating → long industrials.
Explore Acled Mining Disruption on alphactor.ai
See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.