Economy & PolicyExtended setexperimental liveNew

Acled Mining Disruption

Updated dailyData needs: mediumlong only

2017

Extends: Berman, N., Couttenier, M., Rohner, D., Thoenig, M. (2017). "This mine is mine! How minerals fuel conflicts in Africa." American Economic Review 107(6). Cross-listed-miner short is novel (alphactor 2026-05-20).

Read the paper →

In plain terms

When violence spikes in major mining regions, metal prices tend to jump and big cross-listed miners rise with them. This family goes long the miner basket on those event spikes.

How it works

Conflict density in copper/gold/cobalt mining regions (DR Congo, Peru, Chile, Indonesia, Bolivia) spikes spot metal prices. For large cross-listed miners the spot-price uplift passes through to revenue and the equity re-rates UP. The original cost-push SHORT thesis was empirically mc-significant on the wrong side at negative Sharpe, so the family trades the spot-passthrough LONG direction (2026-05-20 wave-6 flip).

Live results

3 times picked on its own · 2 times inside a blend (2 beat the stock) · updated 2026-06-06

This strategy is a frequent ingredient in blends that combine a few strategies on one stock. It has contributed to 2 such blended picks (2 of which beat simply holding the stock). Picking it on its own is only one of the ways it shows up.

How its picks scored vs. buy & hold

Each pick is graded on a recent year it was never tuned on, against simply owning the same stock

Where its edge concentrates

Share of picks in each company-size group that beat buy & hold

How often it trades

Active vs. patient. Bars on the left mean it waits for rare setups; bars on the right mean it trades often

Return vs. buy & hold

How much each pick beat or trailed simply owning the stock over the test year (extreme microcap moves trimmed)

Loading substrate evidence…

Data dependencies

Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
Acled events
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.

Expected edge

Reported return: -1% to -3% over 10d
Tested over: T+0 to T+10d

Target -50 to -150 bps over 10d on qualifying fires (~3-8 per year).

Example tickers where this is likely to fire

FCX SCCO GOLD RIO BHP VALE NEM

Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.

Related families

Acled Conflict Onset DefenseEconomy & Policy

Global conflict fatalities spike → US defense-prime stocks outperform 1-4 weeks.

Oil Supply DisruptionEconomy & Policy

Tanker attacks in Hormuz/Red Sea → oil + tanker stocks rally; airlines + broad market dip 1-5 days.

Copper Steel RatioReal-World & Alternative Data

Copper outpacing steel = capex cycle accelerating → long industrials.

Explore Acled Mining Disruption on alphactor.ai

See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.

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