congressional speech tone
What it checks
When Congress speaks unusually much in one day, we test whether the burst itself moves any sector the next 5-20 days.
Mechanism
Daily count of substantive speech turns (>=50 words) on the House+Senate floor, broadcast as a daily z-score over 252d. On legislative-activity-spike days, the market sometimes reacts at the sector level (defense, energy, healthcare). Substrate gates surface where attribution lives.
Signal rule
GPO CREC speech-count z>=1.0/1.5 over 252d, holds 5/10/20d, broadcast.
Data dependencies
daily_pricesAdjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
political_postsWorker data table, see services/worker schema.
Expected edge
- Paper window
- decades (GPO CREC)
Weak broadcast signal β substrate gates likely filter to 5-20 reactive sectors.
Related families
lobbying shockMacroLobbying is a leading indicator of regulatory tailwinds the firm expects to win β pharma facing FDA, finance facing CFPB. Changes in quarterly lobbying spend predict 6-12 months ahead returns.
congressional trade driftGeopoliticalUS Senate/House members are required to disclose personal trades within 45 days (Stock Act 2012). Ziobrowski 2004 JFQA (Senate), Eggers-Hainmueller 2013 AJPS (House), and Belmont 2024 working paper all document positive abnormal returns following disclosed buys, strongest in committee-chair members trading their oversight sectors. Naive Pelosi-tracker strategies show 3-8% ann. OOS alpha 2020-2024 even after public attention. Uses disclosure_date (not transaction_date) as the tradeable date β transaction_date would leak attention.
trump tariff tonePolitical / SpeechTrump tariff- and china-classified posts on Twitter (2017-21) and Truth Social (2022-) drive next-day moves in importers, defense primes, and domestic manufacturers. Aggregate count of policy-classified posts per day is z-scored over a 60-day window; on z-spike days we broadcast a long signal to every ticker and let DSR / PBO / multitest gates surface the genuine cross-section.
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