Event#343tier 2experimental liveNew

`corp jet acquisition target signal`

cadence: Eventdata: mediumlong only

2020

Jayaraman, S., & Frye, M. (2020). "Are private jets a forerunner signal of M&A?" (SSRN); Yermack, D. (2014). "Tailspotting." RFS 27(3) 809-848.

Read the paper →

What it checks

When an acquirer's corporate jet visits the target's HQ region, the target's stock tends to outperform over 2-4 weeks.

Mechanism

Acquirers visit target boards by corporate jet 30d before announcement (and during due diligence). Single-jet acquirer→target HQ-region visits are a different geometric signal from #255 corp_jet_cluster_ma_leak (multi-jet co-presence).

No production champion data for this family yet. Stats appear once the discovery pipeline promotes at least one strategy with this family tag, or once a multi-family blend that includes it earns a champion slot.

Signal rule

non-target corp jet flight into target's HQ state (via dest_state OR airport→state map) within trailing 30d → LONG target on T+1; hold 10/20d.

Data dependencies

daily_prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
corporate_jet_flights
Corporate-jet flight history derived from OpenSky/ADSB sources and mapped to tickers.
firm_hq_locations
Worker data table — see services/worker schema.

Expected edge

Paper alpha: 100-400 bps
Paper window: T+1 to T+20d

100-400 bps over 10-20d (M&A premium leak).

Example tickers where this is likely to fire

TSLA AAPL GOOG MSFT

Illustrative only — the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.

Related families

corp jet cluster ma leakCorporate event

When >=2 distinct corporate jets (candidate acquirer + target) land at the same metropolitan/regional airport within a rolling 48h window, the pattern statistically precedes an M&A announcement leak. The single-jet "unusual destination" effect from Bao-Edmans 2023 (#201) is complemented here by a multi-party clustering rule on the same source data.

corp jet dc lobby intensityCorporate event

Regulated firms (defense, big pharma, mega-cap tech) increase corporate-jet trips to DC airports (KIAD/KDCA/KBWI) ahead of policy events. Trip-frequency z-score is a leading indicator that Senate-LDA lobbying spend (#77) won't capture for another 30-60 days.

m and a arbEvent

When a ticker files an 8-K with Item 1.01 (Entry into Material Definitive Agreement) or Item 2.01 (Completion of Acquisition or Disposition), the stock often experiences directional drift over 1-3 months as the deal plays out or the market re-rates the combined entity. We treat this as a coarse-grained M&A play (distinct from arbitrage on announced deals which needs target prices): long any ticker that filed a relevant 8-K Item for 21-63 days post-filing.

corporate jet destinationsAlt-Data

FAA-registered corporate jet visits unusual airport (not in baseline 5y top-3) → M&A rumor signal.

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corp jet acquisition target signal