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Gpr Oil Long

Updated dailyData needs: lowlong only

2022

Caldara, D., Iacoviello, M. (2022). "Measuring Geopolitical Risk." American Economic Review, 112(4), 1194-1225. Combined with Hamilton (2003) and Kilian (2009).

Read the paper →

In plain terms

When geopolitical risk spikes, oil prices tend to rise on expected supply disruption. Go long oil majors (Exxon, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, etc.) for 1-3 months.

How it works

Geopolitical risk shocks historically lift oil prices via expected supply-side disruption — Hamilton (2003) + Kilian (2009 AER) document the link from geopolitical events to oil price risk premia. The oil-major equity basket (XOM, CVX, COP, EOG, PSX, VLO, MPC, OXY, SLB, HAL, BKR, FANG) captures the upstream price-lift LONG side over 20-60 days.

Live results

0 times picked on its own · 3 times inside a blend (3 beat the stock) · updated 2026-06-06

This strategy is a frequent ingredient in blends that combine a few strategies on one stock. It has contributed to 3 such blended picks (3 of which beat simply holding the stock). Picking it on its own is only one of the ways it shows up.

How its picks scored vs. buy & hold

Each pick is graded on a recent year it was never tuned on, against simply owning the same stock

Where its edge concentrates

Share of picks in each company-size group that beat buy & hold

How often it trades

Active vs. patient. Bars on the left mean it waits for rare setups; bars on the right mean it trades often

Return vs. buy & hold

How much each pick beat or trailed simply owning the stock over the test year (extreme microcap moves trimmed)

Loading substrate evidence…

Data dependencies

Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
Gpr index
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.

Expected edge

Reported return: +2-4% over 20-60d
Tested over: T+1 to T+60d

+2-4% over 20-60d on oil basket post-GPR shock (CI 2022 / Hamilton-Kilian).

Example tickers where this is likely to fire

XOM CVX COP EOG VLO MPC OXY SLB

Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.

Related families

Gpr Sector Defense LongEconomy & Policy

When geopolitical risk spikes (Caldara-Iacoviello GPR index, daily), defense stocks (Lockheed, Raytheon, Northrop, etc.) outperform on expected procurement budget increases. Go long the defense basket for 1-3 months.

Acled Oil Supply Shock LongEconomy & Policy

When conflict events spike in oil-producing countries (Saudi/Iraq/Iran/Libya/Nigeria), the supply-shock premium lifts US-listed oil majors over the next 5-20 days.

Oil Supply DisruptionEconomy & Policy

Tanker attacks in Hormuz/Red Sea → oil + tanker stocks rally; airlines + broad market dip 1-5 days.

Explore Gpr Oil Long on alphactor.ai

See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.

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