Gpr Sector Defense Long
In plain terms
When geopolitical risk spikes (Caldara-Iacoviello GPR index, daily), defense stocks (Lockheed, Raytheon, Northrop, etc.) outperform on expected procurement budget increases. Go long the defense basket for 1-3 months.
How it works
When the Caldara-Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk index spikes (z > 1.5 vs trailing year), defense-industry equities outperform — the market prices in expected step-ups in defense procurement budgets. CI 2022 document +2-3% LONG-side abnormal return over 20-60 days post-shock.
Data dependencies
- Daily prices
Adjusted-close OHLCV for every US-listed ticker; primary price feed.
- Gpr index
A data feed this strategy reads, refreshed on its normal schedule.
Expected edge
- Reported return
- +2-3% over 20-60d
- Tested over
- T+1 to T+60d
+2-3% over 20-60d on defense basket post-GPR shock (CI 2022).
Example tickers where this is likely to fire
Illustrative only, the signal fires based on the live data, not a fixed list.
Related families
GPR spikes → long defense/oil/gold over 1-3 months.
Rising NATO/global defense spend → long US primes.
Global conflict fatalities spike → US defense-prime stocks outperform 1-4 weeks.
Explore Gpr Sector Defense Long on alphactor.ai
See which tickers this family is currently firing on, with live signals and rankings.