Insider MSPR: What Net Insider Buying Actually Tells You

Why Raw Form 4 Counts Mislead

"Insiders bought 3 million shares this quarter" sounds bullish until you notice the same insiders also exercised and sold 8 million through a 10b5-1 plan. Gross counts and dollar totals are noisy — dominated by a handful of executives with scheduled liquidations. The signal you want is the *ratio*: how much of recent filings represented open-market buys made on the insider's own judgment, versus automated sells. MSPR is exactly that ratio, normalized monthly, so you can compare this month to this name's history rather than to the entire market.

What the MSPR Chart Shows

The Insider MSPR chart plots rolling monthly buy/sell ratios over the trailing 24 months alongside the stock's price. Three bands are color-coded: green (ratio > 0.6 = net buying), grey (0.4–0.6 = mixed), red (< 0.4 = net selling). A second line shows the count of distinct insiders involved — the same ratio means very different things when it's 2 executives vs 9. A shaded overlay marks months with a 10b5-1 amendment, which is where insiders routinely game the schedule around earnings.

Reading the Signal

Two patterns have held up in academic work and our own backtests. First, cluster buying — MSPR > 0.7 with ≥ 3 distinct insiders in the same month — has historically preceded 3-month outperformance by 4–6% on average, strongest when the stock has recently drawn down. Second, dry-up after a run — MSPR falling through 0.5 after sustained buying — is a better exit signal than single-month heavy selling, because selling alone is often plan-driven while a *pause* is a conviction shift. Ignore months where only one insider transacted; the sample size isn't there.

Where It Fits

Pair MSPR with the rest of the Insider tab, especially the Insider Transactions table to confirm the ratio comes from open-market buys (type P), not automated plan sells (type S coded 10b5-1). For macro context, check the Insider Summary card which aggregates roles (CEO/CFO/Director) and direct-vs-indirect holdings. When MSPR turns green at the same time Unusual Options Activity shows call sweeping, two independent actors are paying up for the same thesis — that's rare and worth attention.

Open the MSPR chart → /app/stocks/AAPL/sentiment